NASA launched SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission during the weekend. In other words, Boeing’s Starliner astronauts already have a spacecraft (on the way) to return home. If all goes as planned, they should be back on Earth by February 2025. But what looks like a moderately happy ending could have been quite different. A decade ago, NASA was one signature away from changing everything.
One or two contracts. This information came to light thanks to Eric Berger, senior space editor at Ars Technica, and his book Reentry: SpaceX, Elon Musk, and the Reusable Rockets that Launched a Second Space Age. The media outlet he works for has published some fascinating excerpts from his work. For example, NASA came very close to selecting only one company for its Commercial Crew Program (CCP).
And yes, that company was Boeing. So, considering how things have gone since then, the almost “photo finish” decision to add Musk’s company seems historic.
The Starliner failure. On June 5, Boeing’s Starliner lifted off with NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunni Williams on a relatively short “walkabout.” However, the spacecraft remained docked at the International Space Station (ISS) for three months while teams on Earth debated whether to return the crew aboard the troubled Starliner.
Five of the spacecraft’s thrusters failed during its journey to the ISS. It also suffered five helium leaks, one of which NASA engineers identified before launch. After much debate, the space agency returned the Starliner uncrewed, with the astronauts returning aboard SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft.
10 years ago. Some data wasn’t available a decade ago. Given how things turned out, it would have been a terrible decision for NASA to choose Boeing as its sole commercial partner. But at the time, this company was the most reliable option, while Musk’s SpaceX was a newcomer that had yet to prove itself.
It all changed in 2014, when NASA was about to award a contract defining the space race for years to come. At stake was a deal under the space agency’s CCP to develop spacecraft capable of carrying crew and cargo to the ISS.
The story. According to Berger, NASA officials were clearly leaning towards Boeing. In fact, they had already drawn up contracts giving them the agency’s entire commercial crew budget, leaving SpaceX out of the picture. In his book, he says that the majority chose Boeing over SpaceX at a meeting of space advisors and senior NASA officials.
Of course, there was another purely economic reason. NASA had also decided to award a contract to one company instead of two because of its tight budget. As director of NASA’s CCP Phil McAlister told Berger: “We really did not have the budget for two companies at the time. No one thought we were going to award two. I would always say, ‘One or more,’ and people would roll their eyes at me.”
Boeing is “excellent.” SpaceX, not so much. Although NASA ultimately selected two companies, it came remarkably close to not doing so. Apparently, an evaluation panel rated the companies on price, mission suitability, and past performance. SpaceX came in with a lower bid of $2.6 billion, while Boeing asked for $4.2 billion.
Boeing far outperformed SpaceX in the other two categories. NASA rated Boeing’s mission suitability as “excellent” for its assessed ability to safely transport a crew to and from the ISS. Meanwhile, SpaceX received a “very good” score. Boeing also obtained a “very high” rating based on its past performance, while SpaceX got a “high” valuing.
Last minute change. When NASA was ready to sign this contract with Boeing, something changed everything. Berger explains that Boeing’s refusal to conduct a flight test of the Starliner’s abort system (boosters designed to propel the vehicle if the rocket fails during launch) became a critical factor.
Why? Boeing would only allow a ground test of the system, which led NASA’s head of safety and mission assurance to deem the company’s offer unsatisfactory. In addition, SpaceX’s bid had a lower price tag. As a result, NASA considered what might happen if it chose both companies.
The book reports that the decision was so close that NASA had to rewrite its commercial crew contract to include both companies after drafting one that only considered Boeing. It’s hard to imagine what would have happened if NASA had chosen only Boeing’s Starliner to take its astronauts into orbit. But it’s easy to imagine that more than one person would be out of work right now.
Image | NASA
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