Miguel Jorge
WriterJournalist. I've spent more than half of my life writing about technology, science, and culture. Before landing here, I worked at Telefónica, Prisa, Globus Comunicación, Hipertextual, and Gizmodo. I'm part of Webedia's cross-section team.
Some years ago, the U.S. aircraft carriers had no rivals. Not a single nation came close to matching the Navy’s operational and quantitative superiority. However, the situation has changed. In 2024, the U.S. fleet demonstrated its capability to handle massive drone and missile strikes in the Red Sea. Unknowingly, it had a rising competitor behind: China.
What has prompted this shift? The strength shown by the U.S. in the Red Sea is supported by the Navy’s powerful fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, which commands both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, China is quickly emerging as a new rival. Over the past decade, the Asian nation has gone from having no aircraft carriers to currently possessing three. An ambitious expansion plan includes a fourth carrier, which could potentially be nuclear-powered.
Historically, China has been known as a land power, but it’s now on a path to becoming a naval superpower by prioritizing the modernization of its fleet. The country acquired Liaoning–a rebuilt Soviet-era carrier–in 2012 and launched the advanced Fujian carrier in 2022. Since then, China has demonstrated its ability to build and operate aircraft carriers independently. Moreover, the country has developed a defensive “bubble” that gives it a strategic advantage.
Year 2049. China’s goal is clear. By 2049, the centenary of the Chinese Revolution, the country aims to have at least seven aircraft carriers. This date is also significant as it marks Beijing’s target for achieving reunification with Taiwan, whether through peaceful negotiation or military action.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) currently surpasses the Navy in the total number of ships, boasting more than 370 vessels compared to the Navy’s 295. If China continues to expand its carrier fleet and upgrade its technology at the current pace, it could directly challenge U.S. naval supremacy in the Indo-Pacific region.
The future of carrier warfare. If the U.S. and China maintain their current technological advancement rates, the 2040s could be pivotal for the global naval balance. The U.S. plans to deploy its sixth-generation Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, which is designed to address the weaknesses of the F-35 by providing greater range and strike capability. With a combination of F-35Cs and NGADs, the American fleet could gain a significant advantage in long-range air combat.
Meanwhile, China will develop the J-35 fighter, which is equivalent to the F-35, and may introduce a new naval fighter. Additionally, the Asian nation plans to have its Xian KJ-600 early warning and control aircraft, which will serve a role similar to that of the E-2 Hawkeye.
A different strategy. In the Navy, aircraft carriers are the centerpiece of maritime strategy. In contrast, China doesn’t rely on them as the cornerstone of its naval power. Instead of using aircraft carriers to project power globally, the PLAN operates them within a highly protected environment, safeguarded by its advanced anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy.
This defensive system aims to dominate the first island chain, which includes Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines while neutralizing any attempts at U.S. military intervention in the region. In other words, Chinese aircraft carriers aren’t tools of global naval supremacy. Rather, they serve as force multipliers within the A2/AD defensive shield. As a result, they allow for increased operational security and support Beijing’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Carrier expansion in strategy. According to The National Interest, the development of China’s carrier fleet has been rapid and methodical. It began with Liaoning, an old Soviet vessel that was rebuilt and often criticized by naval powers. However, it’s evolved into an increasingly advanced and ambitious shipbuilding program.
As mentioned earlier, China currently has three aircraft carriers. First, Liaoning (2012) is primarily used for training and testing. Then, Shandong (2019) is an improved version of the Liaoning, but it still has some technological limitations, such as its ski-jump system. Finally, Fujian (2022) is the most advanced carrier to date. It’s equipped with electromagnetic catapults and designed to align more closely with U.S. carrier standards.
A fourth aircraft carrier is on the way. Set to launch in the next few years, the upcoming carrier could mark a significant milestone for China, especially if it’s nuclear-powered. A nuclear-powered carrier would greatly enhance its range and ability to operate far from the Chinese coast.
The key lies in a “bubble.” The A2/AD strategy combines long-range missiles, advanced radar, and electronic warfare systems to create a defense network that makes it challenging for enemy forces to enter a specific area.
In this regard, China has developed a sophisticated A2/AD network in the Indo-Pacific. This network includes anti-ship ballistic missiles like the DF-21D and DF-26, advanced air defense systems, stealthy submarines, and electronic jamming technologies aimed at deterring and neutralizing U.S. military presence in the region.
Thanks to this defense “bubble,” Chinese aircraft carriers don’t need to operate independently or venture far from their shores. Instead, they can move relatively safely within this protected area, using their aircraft to reinforce Beijing’s control over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
In contrast, U.S. aircraft carriers don’t enjoy the same level of protection in the Western Pacific. While the Navy remains the world’s most powerful naval force, its carrier strike groups face increased risk when operating within range of Chinese missiles.
Strategic impact. Beijing’s strategy completely alters the dynamics in the Pacific. Rather than competing directly with the U.S. in terms of the number and power of aircraft carriers, China is focusing on building a naval force that aims to diminish the effectiveness of U.S. carriers within its sphere of influence.
This leads to a concerning implication. If conflict were to erupt in the region, the U.S. would likely struggle to operate near the Chinese coast without enduring massive attacks. In contrast, Chinese aircraft carriers, protected by the A2/AD “bubble,” could operate more freely, strengthening Beijing’s air and sea presence without having to confront the Navy in open waters.
The U.S. response. The Chinese advantage in A2/AD presents a dilemma for the Pentagon. The U.S. still leads in operational capabilities and carrier combat experience. However, its dominance in the Pacific is no longer absolute.
To address this challenge, the U.S. is developing new strategies. These include deploying dispersed forces to prevent China from targeting large naval groupings with a single strike. The U.S. also aims to create new hypersonic missiles and electronic warfare systems to counter the A2/AD bubble. Additionally, the country is planning to integrate advanced drones and sixth-generation aircraft to enhance the range and lethality of its forces while minimizing risk to aircraft carriers.
However, recent developments over the past decade appear to favor China. Its A2/AD network is becoming increasingly sophisticated and its carrier fleet continues to expand.
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