Adapted by:
Miguel Jorge
Writer
Alba Mora
WriterFew things more vividly highlight a crisis situation than the price of a basic product in the supermarket. In Japan, as well as in much of Asia, rice is a staple food and a key part of many livelihoods. However, a combination of factors is threatening this essential grain. Rice prices in Japan recently reached an unprecedented high, prompting the government to take action.
Tons of rice. Due to rising rice prices caused by distribution problems, the Japanese government has announced that it’ll release 210,000 tons of rice from its emergency stockpile starting in March. The aim is to help stabilize the market. This is the first time authorities have used some of the country’s rice stockpiles to reduce prices rather than for emergencies like poor harvests or natural disasters.
Agriculture minister Taku Etō emphasized that rice production has been enough to meet demand, but distribution bottlenecks have kept prices elevated. In 2024, rice production increased by 180,000 tons compared to the previous year. However, the amount collected by distributors was down 210,000 tons, indicating that farmers and wholesalers may be withholding stock in anticipation of further price hikes.
According to researcher Masayuki Ogawa from Utsunomiya University, the current price imbalance is caused by the influx of speculative buyers, who have artificially driven prices up without benefiting producers.
Several factors. Many reasons explain the rise in the price of rice in Japan. Within just one year, the price of a five-kilogram package of Japanese rice has surged from $13 to $24. The causes include a record heat wave in 2023 that reduced agricultural yields and stock levels, alongside an increase in consumption driven by a surge in tourism. Additionally, warnings of typhoons and earthquakes have led to panic buying, prompting some retailers to limit sales.
The harvest has been steady–actually, it’s been quite good. However, there are indications that farmers and wholesalers have held back their stocks in anticipation of further price increases.
Release strategy and expectations. To alleviate market pressure, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture will initially auction 150,000 tons of rice to agricultural cooperatives and wholesalers. This quantity will consist mostly of 2024 grain, with a small portion coming from the 2023 harvest. Depending on the impact of the first phase, authorities will release an additional 60,000 tons. The auction is scheduled for mid-March, which means that the rice is expected to arrive in stores between late March and early April.
The primary objective is to improve distribution without directly intervening in the market’s price mechanism. In this context, Etō reaffirmed the government’s stance that prices should be determined by supply and demand, expressing confidence that this measure will help normalize the situation. Moreover, the Ministry of Agriculture intends to “buy back” the amount released within the year, with timing flexible based on market reactions.
Impact on consumers and industry. While this measure is expected to lower rice prices, Ogawa warned that the decrease won’t be immediate or uniform across all retailers. Rather than directly affecting supermarket prices, the released rice will likely be directed more toward the ready-to-eat food industry, including restaurants, hospitals, and schools.
Japan’s rice stockpile. In 1995, Japan established its rice stockpile system in response to a supply crisis caused by an unusually cold summer in 1993. Since then, the government has maintained a stockpile of around one million tons of rice, stored across about 300 facilities nationwide. To ensure supply during emergencies, 200,000 tons are renewed annually. For instance, a warehouse in Saitama, near Tokyo, recently showcased 20,000 tons of rice, which is enough to fill 300 million bowls.
Historically, Japanese authorities have used rice stockpiles only after natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes. Time will tell whether recent measures will effectively stabilize distribution and help contain price increases in the medium term.
Image | Seiya Maeda
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