In 2007, the science fiction movie Children of Men explored the socio-economic fallout of a world without children. Less than two decades later, the premise feels alarmingly relevant as fertility rates plummet globally—even in developing nations. Now, a Japanese mathematician has made a bold prediction about the country’s future.
First, surnames. Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University, made headlines in 2024 with a study predicting that by 2531, all Japanese citizens could share the surname “Sato,” the country’s most common last name. The projection was based on Japan’s law requiring married couples to adopt a single surname, a practice dating back to the 19th century.
Yoshida argued that the policy could erode individuality, complicate property ownership, and create practical issues like the need to identify people by first name or number. Now, he’s turned his attention to an even more alarming trend: the country’s birth rate.
A world without children. According to Yoshida’s latest model, if Japan’s birth rate continues its current decline, there could be only one child under the age of 14 in the entire country by January 5, 2720—just 695 years from now.
Yoshida has conducted annual estimates since 2012, using a model based on the annual decline in Japan’s child population. In 2023, that rate was 2.3%, pushing the projected date forward by more than 100 years from his earlier calculations. While this prediction is a speculative exercise, it underscores the urgency of addressing Japan’s demographic crisis.
The decline. Japan’s fertility rate hit a record low of 1.20 children per woman in 2023. In Tokyo, it fell below 1 for the first time, reaching 0.99.
This decline is partly attributed to a sharp drop in marriage rates. The 2020 census showed that 28% of men and 17.8% of women in their 50s had never married—a stark increase from 1990, when only 5.6% of men and 4.3% of women in that age group were unmarried.
Government response. To counter the trend, the Japanese government has ramped up efforts to encourage marriage and boost the birth rate. A notable initiative involves promoting dating apps, which are increasingly popular among younger generations.
A recent survey revealed that one in four couples under 40 who married in the past year met through such platforms. In 2023, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government launched its own dating app to help city residents connect with potential partners and promote family formation.
An aging population. Japan’s aging population presents significant economic and social challenges. Yoshida’s projections serve as a stark reminder of the urgency to address these issues.
Without effective measures, Japan risks a sustainability crisis, with a shrinking workforce and mounting burdens on future generations. Experts stress that reversing the trend will require a combination of government incentives, cultural shifts, and inclusive social policies. Otherwise, as Yoshida warns, Japan’s future could resemble a dystopian scenario, where the absence of children threatens the country’s stability and growth.
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