The desire to live forever, or at least to postpone death for as long as possible, has long been one of humanity’s greatest obsessions. Today, this goal may be closer to reality than ever before.
So, how close are we to achieving it?
The “longevity escape velocity.” This concept is central to many people’s idea of eternal life. It suggests that people could extend their life expectancy each year by more than the time that passes within that year.
Scientific advancements have greatly increased life expectancy over the last few centuries. At the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s, life expectancy was just around 40 years. Today, it’s nearly doubled in several countries.
Some experts suggest that, due to the exponential growth of scientific development, life expectancy is also increasing at a similar rate. We may reach a point where the scientific advancements achieved in a single year could increase life expectancy by more than a year within that same period. This theoretically means that people could extend their lives indefinitely.
2029. Ray Kurzweil, a futurist and former engineer at Google, recently predicted a timeline for the arrival of the long-awaited longevity escape velocity. In a conversation with Bessemer Venture Partners, he suggested that by 2029, people may be able to rejuvenate themselves faster than they age.
Kurzweil explained, “Research is advancing and it’s curing various diseases. You’re actually getting back on average about four months a year. So you lose a year of longevity. You get back about four months because of scientific research. However, scientific research is also on an exponential curve. By 2029, you’ll get back a full year. So you lose a year, but you get back a year.”
However, Kurzweil’s prediction may soon become outdated if another one of his forecasts comes true. In 2005, he published The Singularity Is Near, where he speculated about the arrival of the so-called “singularity”–a point where humans merge with supercomputers. According to his timeline, humanity will be capable of creating human-level intelligence by 2029, which could pave the way to the singularity by 2045.
A closer look at life expectancy. According to data compiled by Our World in Data, life expectancy in the U.S. was 68.1 years in 1950. By 2000, it had increased to 76.8 years, and by 2019, it reached 78.9 years. This indicates that in the country, life expectancy has improved from an average increase of 0.17 years per year to an average increase of 0.23 years per year.
Achieving an increase of one year per year would signal reaching the longevity escape velocity, a goal that seems increasingly attainable as progress accelerates. However, there’s more to consider. Globally, life expectancy rose from 46.4 years in 1950 to 66.4 years in 2000 and then to 72.6 years in 2019. This reflects a growth rate of 0.4 years per year during the first period, compared to 0.32 years per year in the subsequent period.
These data don’t suggest an exponential growth in life expectancy. Instead, they show gradual increases. While life expectancy is rising, the most significant improvements are occurring in poorer countries. Additionally, the acceleration in life expectancy growth in the early 21st century hasn’t outpaced that of the latter half of the 20th century.
A matter of perspective. Macro data aside, Kurzweil might be at least partly right. In recent years, remarkable stories have emerged of individuals who appear to remain youthful as time passes. Socioeconomic conditions are among the primary factors influencing changes in life expectancy, often more so than scientific advancements alone.
Expectancy vs. reality. Achieving the longevity escape velocity doesn’t equate to attaining immortality. It merely reflects a statistical rise in life expectancy. Not everyone lives to the average lifespan. In addition, achieving perpetual extension won’t guarantee immortality beyond the bounds of statistics.
Even if we reach this target by the end of the current decade, humanity will still face numerous challenges, including diseases (not all of which are fatal), accidents, and violent deaths. In the end, the pursuit continues–not only for a longer life but also for a better quality of life during the additional years we may have, whether they are many or few.
Image | Mark Timberlake
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