At Xataka On, we’re publishing a series of weekly articles on Tim Cook’s upcoming succession as CEO of Apple. This transition, expected to occur before the end of this decade, will mark a significant moment in the history of technology.
CEO succession is a critical issue for any company, but it’s particularly significant when discussing Apple, the world’s most valuable company.
Although Cook said in 2023 that he plans to remain in his position for a while, discussions about his succession are already underway at Apple Park. I’ve consulted industry and company experts to gather their insights on potential candidates for Apple’s next leader.
Ben Bajarin: A Gradual Transition
Ben Bajarin is a technology analyst and CEO of Creative Strategies. He believes that Cook is unlikely to leave anytime soon. However, he acknowledges that Apple is laying the groundwork for future leadership.
Bajarin explains, “I think the overlying executive structure is still vested in the business. I think they still have a vision of execution of what’s needed to launch new products.”
He emphasizes that Apple is beginning to showcase its “deep bench” of talent:
“What you’re seeing is more of the deep bench that has started to show up at events, do presentations... You’ve seen them go down to people who are high up, but they’re not Johnny Scrooge and others.”
Bajarin also highlights the importance of maintaining investor confidence throughout this process and in the leadership transition:
“The hardest part about this, to be honest with you, is your investors. Investors have to have absolute confidence in the person that takes over, and that doesn’t happen overnight.”
Regarding potential candidates, Bajarin mentions hardware engineering senior VP John Ternus and software engineering senior VP Craig Federighi, with a slight preference for Ternus due to his hardware experience. However, Bajarin also notes that the increasing significance of software and AI could make Federighi a strong contender as well.
Dan Moren: Short- and Long-Term Options
Dan Moren is the East Coast bureau chief of Six Colors, a prominent publication focused on Apple. He identifies potential successors for Cook. With some reservations, Moren sees Ternus as the most likely candidate.
“The current heir apparent seems to be John Ternus, Apple’s senior VP of hardware engineering. He seems to be well-liked by the public and his colleagues, has a solid grasp of technology, and is charismatic in presentations.”
However, Moren also cautions that Ternus may lack the high-level experience typically expected of a CEO:
“But he doesn’t necessarily have the high-level experience you might expect from a CEO, especially of one the world’s most valuable companies, so this seems like more of a long-term pick–if Tim Cook steps down five to seven years from now.”
For a more immediate succession plan, Moren points to Jeff Williams, Apple’s current COO:
“The ‘break glass in case of emergency’ CEO candidate has to be Jeff Williams, Apple’s current chief operating officer. Williams knows the business inside and out, having served as Cook’s deputy as well as overseeing work on products like the Apple Watch.”
Moren also mentions Deirdre O’Brien, Apple’s senior VP of retail and people, as a possible candidate due to her long history at Apple and her experience in retail and human resources. According to the expert, the least likely option is Kevin Lynch, Apple’s VP of technology. Despite his technical expertise, Moren believes it would be a significant leap from his current role.
Mark Gurman’s Analysis
Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman recently offered an intriguing viewpoint on Apple’s succession strategy. He suggests that the company has a unique approach to managing key executives’ departures: Ensuring that they don’t truly leave.
Gurman points to several examples of this strategy, including notable figures such as Bob Mansfield, Jony Ive, and Phil Schiller. These individuals were given less significant roles or honorary titles to keep them associated with the company. The expert argues that this tactic helps alleviate investor concerns and maintain employee morale.
Regarding potential successors to Cook, Gurman identifies five candidates:
- John Ternus. Gurman views him as the most likely candidate to succeed Cook in the long run.
- Jeff Williams. He considers him a likely choice if Cook were to leave in the near term, which aligns with Moren’s opinion.
- Craig Federighi. He sees him as a solid option due to his charisma and in-depth knowledge of Apple’s software.
- Deirdre O’Brien. Gurman values her extensive experience at Apple and her expertise in retail operations and human resources.
- Eddy Cue. He regards Apple’s senior VP of services as a potential choice because of the increasing importance of services in the company’s financial portfolio.
Gurman also notes that when Cook eventually steps down as CEO, he’s likely to become Apple’s executive chairman. He would follow the pattern established by other major tech companies. This transition would be part of Cook’s legacy: Fostering a company that prioritizes stability, even in the process of succession.
Xataka On’s Take
Cook’s succession is likely still a few years away, but Apple has been planning for it for a long time. The company has several scenarios in mind, including a planned transition in line with its timeline and a sudden replacement due to an unexpected issue. Each scenario requires different considerations, which also means different candidates.
In a strategic handover aligned with Apple’s desired timeframe, Ternus is an ideal candidate. Under Cook, Apple prioritizes stability. Ternus, who is in his late 40s, has a long tenure ahead of him. Interestingly, Cook became CEO at 51.
Additionally, Ternus possesses a greater sense of naturalness and approachability than Cook. While this may seem trivial, having a visible, relatable face is advantageous now that Apple is under intense scrutiny. Federighi would also be a strong candidate. However, he’s 55, and his experience is limited to hardware.
If a sudden tragedy were to occur, Apple would need to find a replacement for Cook quickly. In that case, the company would likely opt for someone with more extensive experience suited for a shorter leadership term while Ternus completes his preparation for the role. Williams and even Federighi could be ideal candidates, although Cue and O’Brien could also be strong contenders.
Below, I break down the probabilities for each Cook’s potential successor, provided the appointment occurs in a calculated scenario without any sudden emergencies.
- John Ternus: 70%
- Craig Federighi: 15%
- Jeff Williams: 10%
- Deirdre O’Brien: 1%
- Eddy Cue: 1%
- Greg Joswiak: 1%
- Katherine Adams: 1%
Any other member of the board is practically ruled out.
Image | Apple | Xataka
Related | The Succession of Tim Cook (I): This Is the Legacy He’ll Leave Behind as Apple’s CEO
View 0 comments