In 2014, NASA awarded fixed-price contracts to SpaceX and Boeing to develop two spacecraft capable of carrying astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS).
The space industry was used to cost-plus contracts, where NASA bore the full cost, as well as an additional payment for the company to make a profit. However, this time, NASA asked the companies to put a price on their projects and assume the risk of any cost overruns in order to encourage innovation.
SpaceX and Boeing won the public competition over Blue Origin and Sierra Space. SpaceX received $2.6 billion for the development of the Crew Dragon, a spacecraft based on the Dragon cargo spacecraft that had just been successfully tested. For its part, Boeing received $4.2 billion for a new spacecraft, the CST-100 Starliner.
The program under which the two contracts were signed was called the Commercial Crew Program. Under this program, manufacturers would own and operate the spacecraft, but NASA would use them as a means of commercial transportation of up to four astronauts.
SpaceX Won Long Ago
The spacecraft contracted for NASA’s commercial flight certification required four demonstrations: an emergency escape test on the launch pad, an uncrewed orbital flight test, a mid-launch emergency escape test, and a crewed orbital flight test.
Originally slated to begin operations in 2017, both spacecraft faced repeated delays, forcing NASA to buy additional seats from Russia on its Soyuz capsules to ferry its astronauts to the ISS.
In 2020, SpaceX successfully completed the final demonstration of the Crew Dragon spacecraft, launching astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS and safely bringing them back. Since then, it has completed 12 flights, eight of which were for NASA, which rotates astronauts every six months.
In contrast, Starliner has faced continued delays. Its first uncrewed flight in 2019 failed to reach the ISS due to a software glitch, resulting in premature fuel burn because of the desynchronization of a mission timer. The spacecraft was then grounded for months because of corroded valves, which Boeing eventually redesigned.
Starliner Is Leading Boeing to Economic Disaster
In 2022, Boeing successfully launched the Starliner spacecraft to the ISS. However, issues with the parachute and faulty valves caused a delay in the first manned test until June 2024. On June 5, astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, at 61 and 58 years old, respectively, took off aboard the spaceship, despite a detected but unfixed “small helium leak.”
Starliner arrived at the ISS the next day, but encountered mid-flight issues including several additional helium leaks and the failure of five thrusters in the maneuvering system. Although four thrusters were recovered, these problems ultimately doomed Boeing’s final test.
The return of the astronauts was the only remaining demonstration for Boeing. However, NASA lacks confidence in the spacecraft and has decided to use a Crew Dragon with two empty seats and two spare suits for Wilmore and Williams to return home with SpaceX.
Starliner is set to return empty to Earth in early September. This represents the biggest setback that Boeing’s space program could face at this point and comes with a more tangible punishment: millions of dollars in losses.
The project has faced numerous delays and cost overruns, resulting in massive financial losses. Boeing has already exceeded NASA’s fixed-price contract and is now staring at a total of $5.1 billion in losses. As such, Starliner is leading the company to a total economic disaster.
Boeing has already incurred a $1.6 billion loss on the Starliner project. Many expect this figure to rise in the next few months while the company and its suppliers (like Aerojet Rocketdyne) work to address the propulsion system issues that plagued the manned mission.
NASA Wants Starliner to Fly Again
NASA isn’t yet sold on the Starliner spacecraft, and it’s been a costly endeavor for Boeing. The big question now is whether Starliner will have another flight. In this respect, Bill Nelson, the head of NASA, is confident that the spacecraft will definitely fly again.
NASA has invested $5 billion in Starliner, and the ISS is still more than five years from retirement. It would be ideal to complete the certification next year and have two spacecraft available as planned, thereby reducing the agent’s reliance on solely the Crew Dragon.
On the other side of the scale, Crew Dragon is progressing rapidly. There are already several Crew Dragons in operation and two launch towers available. SpaceX has recently adapted the SLC-40 platform for manned flights, and is working with NASA to extend Crew Dragon’s lifetime to more than five flights.
It seems unrealistic that Starliner will be able to complete the six flights planned for NASA. Although it might complete its certification next year, scheduled flights may not begin until the following year. NASA rotates astronauts twice a year, and considering that space agencies will retire the ISS in 2030, Starliner will likely only be able to complete five, or even fewer flights.
At present, it seems Starliner has one last chance. If it encounters any further issues during re-entry with an empty spacecraft, NASA will have averted a crisis on the scale of the Columbia disaster, where seven astronauts aboard a NASA’s Space Shuttle mission were killed. Overall, there’s no doubt that Boeing’s future in space exploration is in jeopardy.
Image | Michael Seeley (via Flickr)
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