When The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power rekindled global enthusiasm for J.R.R. Tolkien’s universe, demographer Lyman Stone found himself re-reading the original works with a new perspective. As a child, he had loved the books for their fantasy, but now, armed with expertise in demography, he approached them with a question: How many people lived in Middle-earth?
Stone quickly realized that Tolkien’s writings lacked detailed population data. The closest answer to his question seemed to be, “I haven’t the faintest idea.”
Refusing to accept this, he embarked on a project to calculate the population using historical demography methods.
Not an easy task. Stone had to assume that Middle-earth functioned like a “normal” historical society, governed by the same agricultural and demographic rules. He divided the continent into regions based on factors like geography, climate, and access to water, then compared them to historical equivalents.
For instance, he classified the Iron Hills as 12% arable land, 68% mountains, 12% steppe, and 8% riparian zones, allowing for further calculations.
How many people lived there? If Middle-earth’s population mirrored medieval Europe’s density and resource usage, Stone estimated it could support 34 million people.
However, this number reflects the maximum capacity based on available resources, not the actual population living there during Tolkien’s stories.
Is there a difference? Precision matters, as illustrated by the case of the Anduin’s riparian zones. Stone’s demographic data doesn’t fully align with Tolkien’s descriptions of the area.
While there are various possible explanations for this discrepancy, the key takeaway is this: The estimate of 34 million represents the maximum population Middle-earth could sustain under optimal conditions—not the actual number of inhabitants living there.
Using armies to adjust estimates. Tolkien provided more detailed information about the size of armies, which Stone used as a correction factor—an approach common in historical demography.
For example, analyzing the battles of Rohan led Stone to estimate Rohan’s population between 600,000 and 2.4 million, with 1.2 million being the most likely figure.
Adjusting for war, migration, and orc invasions, Stone revised the total population of Middle-earth to 6.7 million:
- Hobbits: ~200,000
- Elves: ~284,000
- Dwarves: ~121,000
- Humans: over 6 million
What about Orcs? Orcs are trickier to estimate, given Tolkien’s limited information. Stone used the size of Orc armies to deduce a total population of 810,000 Orcs, bringing Middle-earth’s population to approximately 7.6 million.
Related | These Are the Highest-Rated Books Online in Every Country Illustrated on a Fantastic Map
View 0 comments