Adapted by:
Matías S. Zavia
WriterAerospace and energy industries journalist at Xataka.
Karen Alfaro
WriterCommunications professional with a decade of experience as a copywriter, proofreader, and editor. As a travel and science journalist, I've collaborated with several print and digital outlets around the world. I'm passionate about culture, music, food, history, and innovative technologies.
More than 10,000 active satellites currently orbit Earth. Two-thirds belong to SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which operates a 24/7 collision-avoidance team to prevent crashes with other satellites and the 40,000-plus large pieces of space debris. While space junk is already a well-known issue, climate change is set to make it significantly worse.
Climate change and space debris. Carbon dioxide emissions trap heat in the lower atmosphere—but in the upper atmosphere, they have the opposite effect. They cause cooling and contraction, reducing atmospheric density and weakening a natural process that helps clear space debris.
The upper atmosphere acts as Earth’s “vacuum” for space debris. As objects orbit near Earth, they brush against the atmosphere, which gradually slows them down until they fall and burn up.
However, with a thinner atmosphere, this drag effect weakens, allowing debris to remain in orbit far longer. The result? A higher risk of collisions and an ever-growing cloud of dangerous fragments.
Frightening projections. A study published in Nature Sustainability warns that, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, the atmosphere’s ability to support low-Earth orbit satellites will shrink by 27% in 2050. By 2100, this reduction could reach 50% to 66%.
The study introduces the concept of “instantaneous Kessler capacity”—the maximum number of satellites that can operate safely without triggering an uncontrolled rise in space debris. It also highlights the Sun’s cyclical variability: During solar minima, the atmosphere contracts even further, worsening the problem.
The mega-constellation dilemma. The growing demand for low-Earth orbit satellites—positioned between 110 and 1,240 miles above Earth—is accelerating. SpaceX’s Starlink dominates this space, but Chinese, European, and U.S. constellations aiming to deploy up to 60,000 satellites in the coming years will soon join it.
In a worst-case scenario, a single collision could trigger Kessler Syndrome—a catastrophic chain reaction where each crash produces more fragments, exponentially increasing debris and rendering Earth’s orbit unusable.
What’s being done? Space agencies and private companies are taking two primary approaches to mitigate this crisis. First, they’re working to reduce emissions, as the energy transition could slow atmospheric shrinkage and help preserve natural debris-clearing mechanisms. Second, they’re developing active debris removal systems, including satellites designed to capture and deorbit defunct objects.
However, experts emphasize that prevention is the most effective strategy. The European Space Agency’s Strategy 2040 prioritizes stricter regulations on satellite design and launch protocols to limit the creation of new debris.
NASA administrator nominee Jared Isaacman recently underscored the urgency of the issue in a post on X: “Even a millimeter-sized aluminum fragment, traveling at orbital velocity, can cause extensive damage.” For Isaacman, the solution is immediate action: halting new debris creation and avoiding military conflicts in orbit, which could unleash massive debris clouds.
Image | NASA
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