In early December, President-elect Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the next NASA administrator. Although he’s still not the agency’s new leader, many see his potential nomination as a shift favoring SpaceX. In the end, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk was one of Trump’s biggest supporters.
At the same time, Isaacman’s nomination could sideline an industry giant: Boeing.
A challenging year for Boeing. The aerospace company has recently faced some of the most challenging months in its history since the newly released 737 MAX 8 aircraft were involved in two fatal crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia in 2018 and 2019.
In October 2024, Boeing announced the layoff of 17,000 employees. Shortly after, in early November, the company resolved a strike that had disrupted its commercial aircraft assembly lines for seven weeks and resulted in an estimated loss of $6.1 billion.
Boeing’s space division has also struggled. The Starliner spacecraft, which has a troubling history of failures and delays, failed to complete its first manned test due to a problem with its maneuvering thrusters. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon was sent to the International Space Station with two empty seats to “rescue” astronauts who couldn’t return on the Starliner capsule.
The issues with Starliner. Boeing has incurred more than $1.8 billion in cost overruns related to the Starliner mission. Like SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, Starliner was developed under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program through a fixed-price contract. Boeing had expected to recoup these overages once the spacecraft became operational and began carrying astronauts to the ISS. However, Starliner’s ongoing issues have allowed SpaceX to take over flights initially designated for Boeing, including a mission planned for February 2025.
Following the failure of its last certification mission, Boeing placed parts of its space division, including the Starliner program, up for sale. The company’s idea was to focus on more profitable projects like NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS). Boeing is the prime contractor for the development of the lunar rocket, which has also faced criticism. According to NASA’s Office of Inspector General, SLS has incurred cost overruns exceeding 1,228% of the original budget. However, unlike Starliner, these overruns are borne entirely by taxpayers.
Are SLS’s days coming to an end? NASA’s Artemis lunar program has come under public scrutiny due to several issues, including the inefficiencies of its overall architecture and the high costs associated with the SLS rocket. Other associated problems are issues with the Orion spacecraft’s heat shield and doubts regarding SpaceX’s Starship.
Notably, Artemis has also faced pressure from China, which plans to send its first astronauts to the Moon by 2030. Despite these challenges, NASA has opted to continue with its roadmap without major changes.
Following the nomination of Isaacman as NASA’s future leader, current administrator Bill Nelson announced a slight delay in the program. The Artemis II mission is now scheduled to launch in April 2026, a shift from the previous target of September 2025. Meanwhile, the Artemis III mission, which aims to send U.S. astronauts to the Moon again, has been pushed from September 2026 to mid-2027.
The Artemis II SLS rocket will carry four astronauts around the Moon aboard the Orion spacecraft. Its assembly began in early December. Regarding the heat shield issues, engineers expect to resolve these problems by adopting a steeper, shorter atmospheric re-entry path.
What to expect from Isaacman. Although Isaacman’s nomination will take several months to be finalized, some are starting to speculate about his future leadership. Isaacman made his billionaire fortune via Shift4, the payment processing company he founded in 1999. He has a commercial vision for space and aims to cultivate an economy that benefits various industries.
As a result, private space companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, Axiom, and Rocket Lab are likely to thrive under his leadership. Meanwhile, traditional government contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin may struggle. It might depend on the influence of their established lobbying efforts in Congress.
The space race against China continues. Isaacman has also expressed a commitment to ensuring that the U.S. remains competitive in the space race. This may refer to the Artemis lunar program and his goal of eliminating inefficiencies.
Interestingly, in old X posts, he criticized the existence of two contracts for developing lunar landers in reference to SpaceX’s Starship and Blue Origin’s Blue Moon. He argued that this kind of redundancy isn’t mirrored in the SLS program. At the time, he also said the funds saved from streamlining contracts could be better allocated to scientific missions.
However, experts suggest that NASA’s SLS could be among the first cuts in Isaacman’s push for efficiency. If Congress approves it, the decision to replace NASA’s rocket with a more affordable commercial vehicle could mark a significant decline for Boeing as a leading space contractor. Should that occur, SpaceX’s Starship might be considered as a replacement. As such, this would render the Orion spacecraft redundant. It would also likely raise concerns about relying entirely on one company.
The preferred solution to replace the SLS rocket seems to be a public-private partnership involving multiple companies with existing lower-cost space vehicles. For instance, NASA could use Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket or SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy to launch its Orion spacecraft. Additionally, it could utilize the United Launch Alliance’s Centaur V stage to propel it to the Moon. Due to its ties with ULA, this scenario would effectively diminish Boeing’s role. The company would also likely abandon the SLS rocket development.
Image | Polaris Program Photos
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