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Miguel Jorge
WriterJournalist. I've spent more than half of my life writing about technology, science, and culture. Before landing here, I worked at Telefónica, Prisa, Globus Comunicación, Hipertextual, and Gizmodo. I'm part of Webedia's cross-section team.
Alba Mora
WriterAn established tech journalist, I entered the world of consumer tech by chance in 2018. In my writing and translating career, I've also covered a diverse range of topics, including entertainment, travel, science, and the economy.
In late January, Japan began conducting a series of evacuation drills on the Sakishima Islands, the closest Japanese islands to Taiwan. Shortly after that, the country made a historic decision when it deployed long-range missiles on some of these islands, enough to reach China. As war fears rise, Japan has officially announced an evacuation plan.
Evacuation mission. Japan recently unveiled a plan to evacuate more than 100,000 civilians, including residents and tourists, from the Sakishima Islands in the country’s southernmost end. The plan comes amid increasing military tension in the Taiwan Strait. Tokyo and the international community are concerned over a possible Chinese invasion.
Specifically, the evacuation plan envisions moving around 110,000 residents and 10,000 tourists using ships and aircraft to eight prefectures in Western and Southwestern Japan. The operation is intended to be completed within a maximum of six days. Initially, evacuees would be transferred to the island of Kyūshū. From there, they would be distributed to several destinations that Japan is already preparing with temporary accommodations.
Military readiness and drills. Although Japan had previously performed evacuation drills, it didn’t disclose the primary rationale behind them. However, in response to the increasing threat, the Japanese government has decided to announce that it’ll conduct evacuation drills on the Sakishima Islands starting from April next year. The archipelago is strategically significant. It hosts nearly 50,000 U.S. troops and plays a critical role in Japan’s defense strategy.
Moreover, Japan will install surface-to-air missile units on the Yonaguni Island, which is just 60 miles from Taiwan. The country is also building temporary subway shelters. They’re equipped with food and supplies for a minimum of two weeks. These measures are designed to bolster defense capabilities in the event of an attack, ensuring the protection of local populations.
The evacuation plan doesn’t explicitly reference Taiwan. However, the increasing likelihood of the East Asian country becoming the focal point of a military conflict has triggered Japan to release an evacuation plan.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory. In recent years, it’s intensified its military pressure on the island and hasn’t ruled out the use of force to push for “reunification.” The precedent set by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has intensified fears that the Taiwan Strait could become the next major conflict zone in Asia. The hardening of geopolitical stances–especially after President Donald Trump’s return to office–has also contributed to those concerns.
The U.S. and the weakness of the alliance. A key factor driving Japan’s deployment of long-range missiles and its official evacuation plan is uncertainty regarding the U.S. The Asian nation has widely publicized its evacuation plan in Taiwan, leading to concerns about the reliability of regional alliances. Many Taiwanese analysts perceive Japan’s initiative as an indication that Tokyo doesn’t fully trust Washington to uphold its defense commitments in the event of a cross-strait conflict. This is especially concerning under Trump’s “America First” policy.
Trump recently questioned the reciprocity of the U.S.-Japan security treaty and said that Tokyo isn’t obliged to defend the U.S. in the event of aggression. These statements have also heightened Tokyo’s concerns. All this has fostered the perception that Japan is “quietly” preparing to secure its own interests without depending on U.S. intervention.
Strengthening regional defense. As previously mentioned, Japan has intensified its defense strategy beyond the evacuation plans and militarization in the Sakishima Islands. The country is also moving forward with the planned deployment of long-range missiles in Kyūshū, enhancing its capacity to respond to threats from the Asian mainland.
At the same time, the Senkaku Islands, which are disputed with China and administered by Japan, remain a contentious issue that could further complicate regional security. The Japanese government has stated that these measures are part of a comprehensive strategy anticipating “imminent” armed attacks.
Vulnerability in the islands. The inhabitants of the most vulnerable islands share the government’s concerns. In this context, The Guardian reported that Japanese defense minister Gen Nakatani recently acknowledged the “strong sense of crisis” among residents. The region has historically experienced territorial disputes and military maneuvers.
The proximity of Yonaguni and other islands in the archipelago to the Taiwan Strait, combined with China’s increasing presence in the surrounding waters, fosters a constant sense of threat. As such, the combination of planned evacuations, strengthening of shelters, deployment of weaponry, and cooperation with Washington has a clear objective. Japan wants to bolster its resilience in the face of potential military escalation.
Images | adam_flix | U.S. Pacific Fleet
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