For years, Yellowstone National Park has concealed one of the world’s most formidable geological secrets: the Yellowstone Caldera. This massive supervolcano has intrigued scientists and sparked public speculation, raising two critical questions:
- When will it erupt?
While predictions about long-term volcanic activity remain elusive, experts agree that an eruption isn’t imminent. - Where will it erupt?
This second question, long overshadowed by the first, has now been answered by an American research team.
According to a recent study, the northeastern section of Yellowstone National Park is the most probable site for the next eruption.
Researchers created a detailed model of the vast magma reservoir lying beneath the park, which stretches 30 miles below the surface.
Their findings revealed four shallow magma pockets at depths of 2.5 to 6.8 miles, hosting rhyolitic magma—a viscous, silica-rich type responsible for Yellowstone’s two most significant eruptions in the past two million years.
Three of these pockets contain magma volumes comparable to minor historical eruptions. The fourth, however, holds enough magma to trigger a major eruption, like the one that created the Mesa Falls Tuff 1.3 million years ago.
A “Heat Engine” Beneath the Surface
A fifth, deeper pocket of basaltic magma serves as a heat engine, transferring energy to the upper chambers. Researchers note that this mechanism keeps the northeastern magma chamber hotter and more active, while western chambers are cooling and solidifying.
The team employed a technique called magnetotellurics, which uses Earth’s magnetic field to map subsurface magma.
By analyzing data collected between 2017 and 2021, they identified the magma’s location and composition.
This study, published in Nature, also supports the USGS’s conclusion that Yellowstone is unlikely to erupt soon. Magma accumulation in calderas can take hundreds of thousands of years, offering a measure of reassurance.
The discovery is a step forward in understanding Yellowstone’s potential hazards. While its eruptions have ranged from massive events—like those forming the Mesa Falls Tuff—to minor lava flows, such as the last eruption 70,000 years ago, the caldera remains a geological powerhouse with global implications.
The new insights provide valuable information for monitoring the caldera, emphasizing that while an eruption is not imminent, Yellowstone’s unique geology requires continuous study.
Image | Nicolasintravel (Unsplash)
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