Shortly after their release, many already referred to these films as two of the biggest financial disappointments of the year: Red One, featuring The Rock and Chris Evans as they rescue Santa Claus, and The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, an animated adaptation of J.R.R. Tolkien’s work that serves as a prequel to Peter Jackson’s trilogy. However, things have changed, and both films might now know how to downplay those failures.
Box office flops. It’s important to clarify that both movies have, indeed, been box office disasters. Red One had a budget of $250 million (significantly higher than typically expected for a film of this nature) but has only grossed $176 million. Its box office performance may plummet further in the coming weeks, especially after its unexpected release on Amazon Prime Video, which was likely prompted by its disappointing box office results. Meanwhile, The War of the Rohirrim had a budget of $30 million. It opened first in international markets and managed to gross just $2 million abroad. A week later, it was followed by $4.6 million in the U.S.
What is success? The conversation surrounding box office successes and failures has become more nuanced. Before the rise of streaming platforms, a film that flopped in theaters was generally deemed an irreversible failure. However, there’ve always been exceptions. Movies that underperformed at the box office or in rental markets have eventually gained a cult following and even led to sequels. Examples include The Shawshank Redemption, Fight Club, and Austin Powers.
The streaming aspect now adds a new layer to this evaluation.
Prime Video record. In just a few days, Red One has achieved 50 million views worldwide, setting a viewership record previously held by Road House, which took two weeks to reach that same figure. While this impressive viewership doesn’t compensate for any box office losses, it does benefit Prime Video in less tangible ways. For example, subscriptions have increased, and the platform can compete with holiday production powerhouses like Disney and Netflix.
Change in success metrics. In the streaming era, the industry has become accustomed to evaluating the success or failure of movies using metrics that extend beyond profitability and viewer numbers. New indicators have emerged in this evolving landscape, including total views, playtime, and subscription growth associated with a release.
Long-term engagement with content is also crucial. Assessing how long a film remains relevant in public discussions, even months after its release, is becoming more important. Although Red One isn’t considered a success for Amazon, the positive publicity generated by its record-breaking viewership, along with a new influx of viewers, may help mitigate the initial perception of failure.
Failures in franchise times. Another example is The War of the Rohirrim. Facing potential box office struggles, Warner Bros. decided to fast-track the project to avoid losing film adaptation rights to Tolkien’s novels while Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boyens developed a creative vision for future live-action films. Consequently, the final product hasn’t met expectations. In addition, the $30 million investment falls within a controlled loss margin, anticipating a blockbuster from upcoming productions.
Image | Glenn Carstens-Peters | Amazon MGM Studios | Warner Bros. Pictures
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