2025 began much like 2024 ended, with another undersea cable cut and suspicions of possible sabotage. The Baltic Sea, where several suspicious incidents have occurred, has been at the center of these concerns. Finland recently conducted a raid on a Russian vessel suspected of cutting power cables. A month earlier, another incident had resulted in the severing of submarine communications cables, with attention focused on Russia once again, this time involving a Chinese-flagged ship. However, the situation has taken a new turn.
An accident rather than sabotage. According to The Washington Post, an intelligence assessment from the U.S. and several European countries suggests that recent undersea cable damage affecting critical infrastructure in Europe is the result of maritime accidents, not sabotage.
Ongoing investigations by Western security agencies have concluded that the damage wasn’t part of a Russian hybrid warfare campaign, as some initially feared. Instead, it was caused by commercial vessels unintentionally dragging their anchors due to inexperienced crews and poor vessel maintenance.
Key findings and results. Based on intercepted communications and other classified sources, intelligence agencies conclude that there’s no evidence suggesting a deliberate act of sabotage.
The incidents in question include three events that occurred over the last 18 months:
- Eagle S: The Eagle S tanker is part of the so-called Russian “shadow fleet,” which aims to circumvent international sanctions. Finland identified the vessel after it damaged an undersea power cable connecting the country to Estonia. The Finnish investigation determined that the anchor dragging was accidental.
- Newnew Polar Bear: The Hong Kong-flagged ship cut a gas pipeline in the Gulf of Finland, prompting security alerts and suspicions of possible hostile action. However, the investigation concluded that this incident was due to an operational error.
- Yi Peng 3: A Chinese ship disrupted two data cables in Swedish waters. Swedish authorities found no evidence to suggest intentional wrongdoing in this incident.
Not what it seemed. In all these cases, U.S. and European officials have provided “clear explanations” indicating that the incidents were accidental and have ruled out direct Russian involvement, at least for the time being. However, some experts remain skeptical. They argue that the pattern of incidents is suspicious, given the history of covert Russian operations targeting undersea infrastructure.
Russian suspicion. Recent cable damage has intensified the perception of vulnerability in Europe. The continent is already facing or is at risk of experiencing a wave of hybrid attacks, which authorities attribute to Russia. These attacks can range from attempts to smuggle explosives on cargo planes to potential sabotage operations at sea.
In this context, European authorities have been hesitant to accept the explanation that these incidents are merely accidents, particularly given Russia’s long history of using covert methods to destabilize the West. In fact, for years, Western countries have identified the General Staff Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, a Russian military unit specializing in undersea infrastructure, as a significant threat to European communications and energy supplies.
NATO and European reactions. The series of incidents has prompted Europe to enhance its vigilance in the Baltic Sea. NATO recently announced the deployment of new patrols, including frigates, maritime patrol aircraft, and submarine drones, to detect suspicious activity on the seabed. This strategy responds to concerns about the increasing vulnerability of critical infrastructure, particularly as the Baltic countries work to disconnect from the Russian power grid.
Finnish authorities took a more assertive approach regarding the Eagle S tanker. They intercept it in their territorial waters and detain crew members suspected of involvement in the incident. The vessel’s condition was described as extremely poor, reinforcing the theory of an accident due to negligence.
Challenges and prospects. Despite the official positions of Western governments, skepticism remains regarding the narrative that these incidents are mere accidents. Critics of Russia include Pekka Toveri, a former head of Finnish military intelligence and a current member of the European Parliament, who argues that these events are part of a Russian tactic of plausible deniability. Toveri points out that several ships have dragged their anchors for hundreds of miles without correcting course, an anomaly that’s hard to dismiss as accidental.
However, the absence of conclusive evidence linking Russia to the incidents underscores the challenges of attributing responsibility in underwater environments, where collecting evidence is notably complex. Additionally, maritime safety experts emphasize a point of common sense. While it’s possible that the incidents were accidental, the coincidental timing of multiple events within a short period is statistically improbable, leaving the door open for the possibility of a covert strategy.
Image | Aleksey Malinovski
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