The current period of low storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean may be coming to an end. A tropical wave and a region of meteorological disturbances could lead to the formation of the next tropical storm of the season, which is expected to be named Debby.
A strange combination. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been monitoring the potential development of a tropical storm in the North Atlantic for several days. If this system progresses, it’ll be the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the sixth if storms in the eastern Pacific are also included.
This system is made up of two elements. First, there’s a tropical wave located several hundred nautical miles west of the Lesser Antilles, moving westward towards the Greater Antilles. Second, there’s an area of low pressure situated over the archipelago and extending over the Bahamas and Florida. The interaction between these two elements could lead to the formation of a significant cyclone, possibly reaching named storm status.
Debby? If it evolves, the name it’d receive would be Debby, the name assigned a few months ago to the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Debby would succeed Tropical Storm Chris and Hurricane Beryl.
Increasing probabilities. On Tuesday, NOAA’s 7-day probability for this evolution was 50%. This means the agency estimated that there was a 1 in 2 chance that this storm would evolve into Debby during the course of this week. On Wednesday, the agency raised this probability to 60%.
What hasn’t changed for now are the 48-hour formation probabilities. As such, NOAA doesn’t believe the storm will evolve over the next two days.
An intense season. The Atlantic hurricane season got off to a bumpy start. After nearly a month in which only one storm accumulated enough strength to be named (Alberto), late June brought Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. Beryl was followed by another minor storm, Chris, and then a lull that has lasted until the end of July.
We shouldn’t take this lull lightly, considering forecasters have been predicting an intense hurricane season for weeks based on two reasons. The first is ocean temperatures. Since the spring of 2023, ocean temperatures have been breaking records day after day.
Although the upward trend has stopped and although the increase in temperatures is somewhat less marked in the North Atlantic, the heat accumulated by ocean waters is still significant. As a result, warmer waters can provide more energy for cyclones.
Not just climate change. We also need to consider the likely arrival of La Niña. According to the most recent predictions, the cooling phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation could take over between August and September. El Niño, a global climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is associated with warmer waters and an increased risk of hurricanes.
On the other hand, during La Niña events, the Atlantic becomes more active. With these two factors combined, it’s important to prepare for a potentially intense season, especially in the second half.
This article was written by Pablo Martínez-Juarez and originally published in Spanish on Xataka.
Image | National Hurricane Center
Related | Hurricane Beryl Is a Grim Warning of What’s to Come: An Intense Hurricane Season
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