Autonomous driving is often touted as a game-changer worth billions of dollars, yet it remains just out of reach. Notably, Nvidia has expressed skepticism about the future of this technology.
“It’s super-hard.” Ali Kani, head of Nvidia’s automotive division, recently discussed the future of autonomous driving. “It’s a next-decade marvel. We’re not close. It’s super-hard,” he told Autocar.
Kani emphasized that truly autonomous cars won’t appear “in this decade.” He explained that the current vehicles lack both the power and the technology needed to implement autonomous driving in the near term.
A new way of working. Kani also discussed the evolution of Nvidia’s approach, noting that the company’s current work is “so different” from what it was a year ago. Nvidia is focused on developing “large-language models now, like ChatGPT with video.” He added, “Nobody was doing that in automotive three years ago.”
Challenges. The primary issue is that the industry currently lacks the computing power necessary to ensure safe autonomous driving in the short term. “That kind of model needs a lot more computing power, a lot more memory bandwidth. You need more sensors like LiDAR and radar, and you need redundant algorithms to ensure it’s safe–and those need to run in parallel, which means more computing,” Kani told the outlet.
Additionally, Nvidia emphasizes that the matter isn’t solely about having raw power. It’s also about presenting a trustworthy image to potential customers and proving that travel can be done safely. Kani pointed out, “The industry needs to go slowly with this. If one firm makes one mistake, the whole industry gets pushed back a few years. So we have to act in the most responsible way and not take any shortcuts. You can only do it when you have proven that it is really safe.”
A different approach to autonomous driving. According to Nvidia, the company operates quite differently from Tesla. Nvidia says that radars and LiDAR sensors are crucial components, which contrasts sharply with Tesla’s strategy of relying solely on cameras and recorded images.
Tesla argues that its substantial fleet of vehicles already on the roads and the data collected from these vehicles allow its algorithms to learn faster than those of its competitors. As a result, Tesla believes it can achieve its goals with less time and financial investment than companies like Waymo or Cruise.
2027. Nvidia’s outlook is quite different from Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s promises regarding the Tesla Cybercab. According to Musk, his fully autonomous cars are expected to be on the road by 2027, although he admitted he tends to be “a little too optimistic with timeframes.”
Musk also said that he plans to begin manufacturing his robotaxis next year–a promise that, like many of his previous claims, seems overly ambitious. However, Musk is banking on his relationship with President Donald Trump to expedite the testing of autonomous vehicles and accelerate the deployment of his services.
An ongoing promise. The truth is that, whether Tesla or any other company, the promise of truly autonomous cars always seems to be just around the corner, yet it never materializes. While Waymo is making progress, Cruise has faltered and joined a long list of failed attempts in this area.
Cruise has successfully launched its service in confined areas, but its vehicles were relatively easy to manipulate. Additionally, the company has faced ongoing controversies, including accidents and clashes with emergency services in San Francisco.
In the meantime, Tesla has yet to achieve a truly autonomous version of its Autopilot, which still requires human oversight. Similarly, Ford’s BlueCruise demands driver attention, although it can operate hands-free on pre-mapped roads. In contrast, Mercedes’ system doesn’t require driver input, but its functionality is limited to very specific circumstances.
A money-making machine. Despite everything, there are billions at stake with autonomous driving. One of the most optimistic projections comes from expert Tasha Keeney. In one of her reports, she noted that a robotaxi service, like the one Tesla aims to create, could account for 60% of the company’s revenue by 2029, potentially boosting its valuation to $800 billion.
Image | Tesla
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