On Monday, NATO confirmed the deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk in Russia. Secretary General Mark Rutte described this deployment as a “significant escalation” of Pyongyang’s involvement in the conflict and called on both North Korea and Russia to withdraw their troops immediately. On this geopolitical chessboard, Russia decided to showcase part of its nuclear arsenal, while Ukraine appears to be maneuvering behind the scenes.
A demonstration of military power. President Vladimir Putin recently oversaw a nuclear exercise in Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe. Russia launched ballistic missiles from the Kamchatka Peninsula in the Russian Far East and from ships in the Arctic. During the exercise, it also launched cruise missiles from long-range aircraft. Although specific results weren’t disclosed, the Russian defense ministry claimed that all missiles successfully hit their targets.
This demonstration of power occurs at a particularly sensitive time, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seeking increased support from his allies. He has been pleading for permission to use long-range missiles to target strategic locations in Russia, a request that has yet to be officially granted.
Nuclear “tests.” In recent years, Russia has conducted multiple ballistic missile tests, particularly in the context of its military buildup and the ongoing war in Ukraine. These tests include the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles, like the Sarmat missile, often referred to as a “super weapon” capable of bypassing other nations’ defenses.
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has used demonstrations of nuclear power and missile tests as a tactic to deter other countries from intervening in the conflict and to showcase military strength.
Promises of nuclear modernization. According to The New York Times, Putin has reaffirmed a commitment to maintain Russia’s nuclear forces at an “adequate level of preparation” without engaging in a new arms race. He emphasized that the focus would be on self-defense and that resources would be allocated for a new generation of submarines, long-range bombers, and nuclear-armed mobile missile launchers. He believes this will ensure the country’s security against external threats.
Domestic messaging and deterrence. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has increased his focus on weapons of mass destruction. This emphasis serves two purposes. On the one hand, it aims to boost domestic morale amid the challenges faced by Russian troops. On the other, it acts as a warning to the West against increasing support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin warns Western countries that supplying advanced weapons to Ukraine raises the risk of direct confrontation with Russia. However, Ukraine sees these warnings as mere threats, noting that Russia hasn’t taken strong action in response to previous Western arms deliveries.
The Ukrainian campaign. The war continues. While North Korean troops consider whether to engage, Ukraine has launched a campaign to encourage them to defect. How? Through the “I Want to Live” Telegram platform, Ukraine promises defectors shelter and food, with assurances of a safe and well-fed life in “comfortable barracks.”
In a video aimed at North Korean troops, Ukraine showcases footage of its prisoner-of-war camps. The video emphasizes the humane treatment and decent living conditions that Russian defectors receive, which include regular meals and comfortable beds. The video is also accompanied by a phone number and a QR code to facilitate contact for those interested in defecting.
Geopolitical context and support from allies. The Ukrainian initiative appears to capitalize on potential discontent among some soldiers, aiming to weaken foreign support for Russian forces amidst the ongoing conflict. Overall, these actions suggest that the Ukrainian campaign highlights Russia’s increasing dependence, at least publicly, on allies like North Korea to bolster its ranks and resources during the war.
However, it seems unlikely that North Korean troops will be able to defect in large numbers.
Image | Dmitry Djouce | Yurii Khomitskyi
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