Despite all the differences between the world’s superpowers, the development of nuclear weapons is like a board game that none of the participants have actually played, only tested. In this case, the rules of the game are the strategies and concepts all the players have worked out around nuclear devices and their use. These approaches are the ones that have brought them to a tense calm. However, everything could change quickly. According to the BBC, Russia has just changed part of the “game’s instructions.”
The news. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin has changed the “rules of the game” by clearly referring to Ukraine and new “alliances” between nations. Most importantly, Putin said that his government would change the regulations and conditions under which Russia would use its nuclear weapons.
In his speech, Putin warned that Russia will consider an attack by a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear-armed nation as a “joint attack.” Ukraine is a non-nuclear state supported by the U.S. and other countries. In a military sense, there’s little overlap. The comments from Putin come as Ukraine seeks permission to use Western long-range missiles against military sites in Russia.
The new doctrine. According to France 24, at the meeting with Russia’s Security Council, Putin also said that given “the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies,” specialists from the Defense Ministry and other government agencies had conducted a year-long in-depth review of the country’s nuclear doctrine.
“The updated version of the document proposes that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear-weapon state, should be considered as a joint attack on the Russian Federation,” he said.
The Russian red button. After Putin’s threat, details on the scope of the danger soon emerged. If Russia threatens any “nuclear” nation for approaching a third party in conflict with it, perhaps there should be a more detailed plan on the geopolitical chessboard. In this regard, the Russian president stated that the conditions for launching nuclear weapons would be “reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border.”
He added that Russian officials “reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus.” Putin’s announcement follows a series of nuclear-related threats by Russian officials in the face of Ukrainian requests to the U.S. and other allies to lift arms restrictions.
“Domestic” support. As reported by The Washington Post, Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, or lower house of parliament, said that the proposed changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine “will allow it to become more flexible and effective. The changes were made to ensure that the doctrine corresponds to the realities of today.”
According to the Financial Times, Russian politician and analyst Sergei Markov said Putin’s announcement had lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons. He also predicted that using such weapons would be easier for Russia. “Generally speaking, this means that Russia, under the new doctrine, can now use nuclear weapons against Ukraine,” Markov stated.
For his part, Abbas Gallyamov, a Russian political analyst and former Putin speechwriter, called the president’s statement “a real disgrace. They have again indicated that they no longer expect to defeat Ukraine with conventional weapons.”
International reaction. Outside Russia, several voices have spoken out on the matter. Nuclear expert Maxim Starchak commented in a recent analysis for the Carnegie Endowment that “with nuclear blackmail, Moscow is trying to recreate the world order that prevailed in the second half of the twentieth century.” For his part, Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said that Russia “no longer has any instruments to intimidate the world apart from nuclear blackmail.”
The nuclear chessboard after World War II. Since the end of World War II, nuclear-armed states have pursued a policy of deterrence. This approach states that if the warring states were to launch significant nuclear strikes, this would lead to mutually assured destruction. However, smaller tactical nuclear weapons currently exist that are designed to destroy targets without widespread fallout.
In this regard, Putin warned European countries supporting Ukraine in June this year that Russia has “many more tactical nuclear weapons than there are on the European continent, even if the United States brings theirs over. Europe does not have a developed early warning system. In this sense, they are more or less defenseless.”
An uncertain scenario. While the West is considering whether to authorize the use of its long-range missiles for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, Russia has decided to change the established rules of the game in its favor. The previous nuclear doctrine, set out in Putin’s 2020 decree, stipulated that Russia could use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatened the existence of the state.
The Russian president’s announcement lowered that threshold a bit more. It may not have consequences, but it’s a clear warning: Russia is ready to make a move.
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