Miguel Jorge
WriterChina’s latest megaconstruction project isn’t just “another” one of them. It’s potentially one of the most ambitious undertakings in the nation’s history. The Asian country wants to build a super dam so monumental that it could overshadow the Three Gorges Dam, which spans 7,600 feet. What’s more, it’s said to produce three times as much energy.
However, there’s a big concern.
A super dam. China is moving forward with the construction of the Motuo Hydropower Station in Tibet. It’s an unprecedented infrastructure project that, if completed, will be the world’s largest hydroelectric power plant. It’ll harness a steep 6,500-foot drop and surpass the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam (currently the largest in the world).
Situated in the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon on the border with India, the dam has raised environmental, geopolitical, and humanitarian concerns, particularly due to Beijing’s lack of transparency regarding its development. Experts warn that the project poses a “ticking water bomb” threat for millions of people in India and Bangladesh.
Seismic hazards. Due to the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates, Tibet is one of the world’s most seismically active regions. A recent 7.1-magnitude earthquake in Shigatse damaged five hydroelectric dams and killed 134 people, highlighting the vulnerability of the area’s infrastructure. Although the Motuo site may be engineered to withstand earthquakes, landslides and mudslides could still occur, posing a direct threat to nearby populations. This is especially concerning given that millions of people could be affected.
Reservoir-induced seismicity, where the weight of water in large dams can trigger earthquakes, further increases the risk. For example, the construction of the Zipingpu Dam was followed by the catastrophic Sichuan earthquake in 2008, which claimed 87,000 lives. Additionally, sediment retention by the dam could diminish soil fertility downstream, leading to erosion of rivers and coastlines in India and Bangladesh.
Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon
Environmental impact. The construction of the super dam would also disrupt water and weather patterns that are crucial for agriculture in the region. Tibet, where the Brahmaputra River originates, is one of the world’s most biodiverse areas and plays a vital role in regulating the climate across Asia.
The Motuo super dam could alter monsoon rainfall patterns, potentially devastating agriculture in India and Bangladesh. Moreover, the ecological consequences of Chinese super dams are already evident in other international rivers, such as the Mekong. There, dam construction has resulted in repeated droughts and saltwater intrusion into agricultural deltas.
Impact on locals and (dis)information. This is another critical aspect of the project that needs to be addressed. Tibet is under strict control by the Chinese Communist Party, making it difficult to determine the extent of displacement that the project will necessitate.
In this context, Beijing hasn’t provided specific details about the costs (total investment is estimated to exceed $137 billion), the companies involved, and the number of people who will be relocated. Additionally, authorities have met past instances of protests against hydropower projects in other Chinese provinces with suppression, indicating that they’ll likely silence any opposition in Tibet.
Geopolitics of a super dam. The Brahmaputra River, which flows into India and Bangladesh, is a vital resource for millions of people. However, China’s lack of transparency has created distrust in New Delhi and Dhaka. Scientists from these countries have requested access to hydrological data to assess the risks associated with the project. India, in particular, is concerned that China may use its control over the river as a geopolitical weapon, potentially restricting or diverting the flow in the event of a conflict.
Given the uncertainty, some Indian officials have suggested an alternative. They propose building a dam on one of the Brahmaputra River’s tributaries to mitigate the potential effects of reduced flow. However, this solution isn’t ideal and could also harm the region’s ecology.
Imminent risk. Nikkei Asia recently reported that the potential for a catastrophic collapse isn’t just speculation. Throughout its history, China has experienced hundreds of dam failures, including the worst dam disaster ever recorded–the collapse of the Banqiao Dam and 61 other dams in 1975. This tragic event resulted in 85,000 direct deaths and displaced 11 million people. Moreover, the Three Gorges Dam was nearly on the brink of collapse in 2020, which posed a risk to 400 million people.
As such, if a strong earthquake were to hit the region and lead to the burst of the super dam, millions of people in the Brahmaputra Valley could face catastrophic flooding. This disaster would likely worsen the existing geopolitical and humanitarian tensions in the area.
It’s also feasible that the Motuo super dam would strengthen China’s control over Asia’s water resources. The Asian nation could turn the Brahmaputra River into a geopolitical weapon, increasing its capacity to exert pressure on its neighboring countries.
Image | Hugh Llewelyn | NASA
Log in to leave a comment