In the world of technology, having ideas for new products and services is a big deal. Being in the right place at the right time is just as important as the idea. Or even more important. Throughout history, there have been certain products that have been revolutionary or ahead of their time. The Atari Lynx and the Nokia N-Gage are just two examples. The Wii U could also be part of the list (despite the bad publicity surrounding the console). However, they were absolute failures in their time.
In the early days of personal computing, when IBM had already achieved some prominence, many names emerged but two rose above the rest: Apple co-founder Steve Jobs and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates. They were where they needed to be to bring their ideas to life, but what if Gates had to start all over again in 2024? The tech billionaire knows exactly what he would do. And the truth is, it’s not all that surprising.
Gates, AI, and Money. Lots of It
Nowadays, everything involves artificial intelligence. There’s not a single app that’s halfway relevant and doesn’t have some AI function for users. Beyond ChatGPT and the numerous AI-powered tools of more or less quality that generate videos and images, there’s AI everywhere.
Microsoft has integrated AI into its Office and Mail suites through its agreements with OpenAI. Google is doing the same with Gemini. Apple, which avoided talking about AI for a few years, now has Apple Intelligence. The video game world is also using AI. Apps like Notion have AI features, and phones like the Pixel 9 or the Galaxy S24 have quickly brought generative AI closer to users with their photo apps.
Big Tech is investing billions in AI data centers, claiming they’ll be profitable in the long run. And despite signs of a bursting bubble, OpenAI’s valuation is expected to reach $150 billion. This number makes it one of the world’s titans, rubbing shoulders with companies like Disney or Intel.
Why so much context? Gates, who once became a pillar of standardizing computing and making it available to every type of user, told CNBC that if he had to start over today, he would join the AI race with a startup focused on that product.
“Today, somebody could raise billions of dollars for a new AI company [that’s just] a few sketch ideas,” Gates claimed. The truth is that the businessman makes it look too easy. However, it's very likely that someone has already pitched that idea to investors behind closed doors (there’s a reason tech giants are pouring money into OpenAI). But the now-retired entrepreneur also says that the key is to have faith.
“I was lucky that my belief in software made me unique,” Gates said. He added that while believing in AI isn’t very unique, having a different view on designing AI systems could be the key to differentiating a product. Of course, it all depends on how much money the company can raise from investors.
And it’s clear there’s money. A PitchBook report from August found that investors have “pumped” $26.8 billion into generative AI deals so far in 2024. In 2023, AI companies raised $25.9 billion, so the 2024 total could set the bar high.
Gates stated that if he could raise enough capital, he’d be fearless in looking to the Sun. In that case, he’d consider launching a competitor to companies like Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI. It’s curious that the billionare mentioned OpenAI because it has Microsoft’s total support (for now). And if he doesn’t get enough funding? Simple: He’d look for a niche where AI can be relevant and grow with less competition.
In addition to saying that if he were 50 years younger, he’d do many things, Gates gave two pieces of advice that might be useful and that many are already applying. The first is that if he were 20 years old, the Microsoft co-founder would have looked at how other companies are approaching AI and identified flaws in their procedures so that he could launch something better or sell his services.
Second, he’d focus on how AI can improve everything from business to everyday life. For example, he might look at how to optimize tedious tasks. One example Gates gave is that if AI could reduce the paperwork burden on doctors, they could spend more time with their patients.
Now, as brilliant as he is, the businessman is a 68-year-old human looking at this from his perspective. I’m not saying he’s old, but he says he encourages young people to push the boundaries of AI because he knows they’re “taking a fresher look at this than I am, and that’s their fantastic opportunity.”
The Microsoft co-founder has different views on AI. A few weeks ago, in an interview for the Next Big Idea Club podcast, the former entrepreneur predicted a short-term decline if AI doesn’t stop being a stochastic parrot. Because of its training model, AI cannot apply anything that its developers haven’t previously taught it. As such, it won’t do anything unexpected. The next step is metacognition.
Metacognition involves being aware of one’s own knowledge, which is exactly what allows humans to keep acquiring knowledge and applying it to reach new horizons instead of repeating the pre-learned conclusion. For Gates, metacognition is “the holy grail” for AI to be much more than an assistant.
The billionaire defined metacognition as the ability to “think about a problem in a broad sense and step back and say: Okay, how important is this to answer? How could I check my answer, and what external tools would help me with this?”
Image | Governor Tom Wolf
Related | Bill Gates Predicts a Near-Term Decline for Current AI. His Bet on the Future? ‘Metacognitive’ AI
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