Space experts have collaborated with the United Nations to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory closely.
They plan to meet again in late April or early May to discuss the next steps.
In just a matter of days, the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has increased from 1.2% to 1.8%. This means there’s a 98.2% chance that the newly discovered object will pass by without incident. However, the elevated risk has prompted the United Nations to trigger global planetary defense protocols for the first time.
Updated estimates. The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Chile discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec 27. However, it attracted the attention of astronomers only after it automatically appeared on NASA’s Sentry list on Dec. 31 due to its impact risk. At that time, it was slightly above 1%.
On Thursday, the Near-Earth Object Coordination Center of the European Space Agency (ESA) released updated data on the size and impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4. According to the latest estimates, the asteroid measures between 131 and 295 feet (40 and 90 meters) in diameter and has a 1.8% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. If it does collide, the impact will occur near the equator, somewhere between Northern South America and Northern India, passing through Central Africa.
Meetings at NASA and ESA. While the probability of impact is still very low, it’s put the UN’s Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) on alert. This committee coordinates responses to asteroids larger than 164 feet (50 meters) in size that have more than a 1% chance of impacting Earth within the next 50 years.
With the global planetary defense protocols now activated, the presence of asteroid 2024 YR4 has prompted two SMPAG meetings so far. The committee has met with NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and with experts from the ESA’s Planetary Defense Office.
Expert resolution. Experts decided to actively monitor the asteroid and meet again in late April or early May. They might meet sooner if the risk of impact increases significantly. The likelihood of impact may change as astronomers gather more data and refine their calculations regarding the asteroid’s trajectory.
If the asteroid is larger than 164 feet and the probability of impact remains above 1% by the time of the next meeting, SMPAG will recommend future actions to the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.
Past experience. Fortunately, humanity has some experience in this area. In Sept. 2022, NASA successfully deflected an asteroid as part of a proof-of-concept mission called DART. The spacecraft slightly altered the trajectory of Dimorphos, a small moon orbiting asteroid Didymos.
The European HERA mission is currently on its way to study the results of this impact. The knowledge gained from this test, along with a similar upcoming Chinese mission, could be vital for future planetary defense efforts, should the need arise.
Image | Javier Miranda | Institute of Astrophysics of the Canary Islands | NASA/JPL
Related | Scientists Have a New Origin Theory for Mars’ Potato-Shaped Moons: A Shredded Asteroid
See all comments on https://www.xatakaon.com
SEE 0 Comment