NASA May Not Need to Destroy the ISS in 2030. A Recently Discovered Leak on the Space Station Suggests an Early End

What seemed minor maintenance issues on the International Space Station (ISS) a few weeks ago have moved into another category. The ISS has operated for over a quarter century, and some parts have experienced failures and leaks. However, the latest problems with the aging space station are so significant that NASA is sounding the alarm.

The report. A recent NASA analysis confirms that managers responsible for operating the space station are concerned about a small module on the Russian segment of the ISS. According to Ars Technica, they refer to a tunnel connecting a larger module to a docking port with a hazardous leak.

Russia and the U.S. are aware of the small PrK module between an airlock on the Progress spacecraft and the Zvezda module. The cracking issue first appeared in September 2019. The new report provides previously undisclosed details from the space agency that underscore the seriousness of the problem.

The leak. According to the report, NASA and Roscosmos are “collaborating to investigate and mitigate the cracks and leaks, determine the root cause, and monitor the Station for new leaks. Roscosmos is confident they will be able to monitor and close the hatch to the Service Module prior to the leak rate reaching an untenable level.”

However, it seems the space agencies don’t have the same understanding of how to evaluate a more severe problem. According to the same report, “NASA and Roscosmos have not reached an agreement on the point at which the leak rate is untenable.”

It’s been a problem for months. NASA also announced that in February of this year, it noticed a relatively high increase in the leak rate. In April, the rate increased even more. Worse, despite years of investigation, neither Russian nor U.S. officials have identified the leak’s cause.

Russia acknowledged the problem in February. At the time, it said it posed no threat to crew safety. The new report contradicts that, pointing to “an increase in the leak rate to its highest level yet.”

The plan, for now. Both space agencies’ idea to mitigate the risk is quite simple: Keep the hatch of the Zvezda module that leads to the PrK tunnel closed. Eventually, if the leak worsens, they must close that hatch permanently. This will reduce the number of Russian dock ports on the ISS from four to three.

Risk level. So, it seems that NASA and Roscosmos are far from fixing the problem. The U.S. space agency’s report details that as of August 2024, the risk of a leak from the Service Module’s transfer tunnel has moved to a “5 by 5” rating. What does that mean?

NASA’s risk scorecard evaluates “risk likelihood” and “risk impact.” It considers the likelihood of a potential risk and the possible damage if a problem occurs. Five, of course, is considered “most severe” on the five-point scale.

What’s next? NASA plans to make the ISS operational only until 2030. It partnered with SpaceX to de-orbit the station in a controlled manner. Russia, however, has committed to staying aboard only until 2028. As such, this issue puts even more pressure on the situation, the relationship between the two countries, and their respective interests in the space race.

Image | NASA

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