‘NASA Is Evaluating All Options’: There’s a 50% Chance That the Astronauts Stranded on the Starliner Won’t Return to Earth on the Spacecraft

In late July, we heard some disturbing news. The astronauts aboard Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft—the flight was originally supposed to last 10 days and has been underway for nearly eight weeks—had no idea when they would return to Earth. Worse, NASA had a plan B, just in case. Since then, there has been silence until Friday—when the space agency spoke on the matter once more.

Too long. The two crew members, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, have now been in orbit for eight weeks when they were due to return on June 14. What initially appeared to be minor problems and leaks turned into something more significant that has delayed the return of the astronauts.

On Friday, we learned that NASA is “evaluating all options.” What does that mean? As Ars Technica reports, echoing a space agency source, NASA is considering not sending the astronauts back return Starliner. In addition, there’s a 50% chance that they’ll return on the Crew Dragon.

Why the Crew Dragon? The truth is that until a week ago, Steve Stich, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program manager, was clear about the spacecraft the astronauts would return on: “Our prime option is to complete the mission. There are a lot of good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home on Starliner. Starliner was designed, as a spacecraft, to have the crew in the cockpit.” However, there's been a lot going on between NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX since then that suggests Wilmore and Williams could return home aboard a Dragon spacecraft.

According to the source cited by Ars Technica, there’s currently a 50% chance that the crew will return aboard the SpaceX spacecraft. The outlet reports that a debate is currently taking place at NASA, stating that the space agency hasn't made a final decision yet. NASA, specifically Jim Free, NASA’s associate administrator, will purportedly not make the call until at least next week.

All options. Ars Technica also spoke with the space agency a few hours ago. When asked if it was now more likely that the Starliner crew would return on Dragon, NASA spokesman Josh Finch said, “NASA is evaluating all options for the return of agency astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station as safely as possible. No decisions have been made, and the agency will continue to provide updates on its planning.”

Latest statement from the agency. A few hours ago, there was also a brief, if admittedly vague, update from the agency. It said: “Following the completion of Starliner’s return planning, which is expected to continue into next week, more information will be shared about the agency’s return readiness review preparations and subsequent media briefing.” So, all indications are that the meeting will likely occur next week.

An intriguing “emergency” study. Meanwhile, the buzz is growing. For example, it has come to light that on July 14, NASA awarded SpaceX a $266,678 task order for a “special study for an emergency response.” NASA said it wasn’t directly related to the Starliner problems, but two sources told Ars Technica it was.

Apparently, this study included work on bringing home more than four crew members on a Crew Dragon, a scenario related to NASA astronaut Frank Rubio and MS-22’s Soyuz Fugas. It also allowed SpaceX to study bringing the Dragon home with six passengers, a regular crew, plus Wilmore and Williams. Curious, to say the least.

What if...? Assuming the plan is to bring the astronauts home aboard the Crew Dragon, there's already data is already on the table. SpaceX has been actively working on a scenario to launch two to four astronauts aboard Crew 9 (a regular crew has four members). This mission has a tentative launch date of August 18, although SpaceX could delay it.

However, it’s only one of two scenarios currently under consideration. Both have the same goal: to get astronauts Wilmore and Williams back to Earth.

This article was written by Miguel Jorge and originally published in Spanish on Xataka.

Image | NASA

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