NASA made a major announcement in late March last year: A prominent asteroid will pass within 20,000 miles of Earth on April 13, 2029, making it visible to the naked eye. More recently, NASA released yet another striking discovery—an asteroid unlike any previously observed.
YR4: risk of impact. At the end of December 2024, the ATLAS system in Chile discovered an asteroid named 2024 YR4. This object has drawn attention due to its higher impact probability than any recent meteorite—1% for Dec. 22, 2032—making it one of the asteroids with the highest recorded collision risks.
This estimate will likely change with further observations, with expectations that the impact probability will decrease.
Classification and risk. The asteroid is estimated to be 130 to 300 feet in diameter, similar in size to the Tunguska event object. Because of this, it currently ranks level 3 on the Torino scale, meaning it has an actual probability of impact that warrants monitoring. However, NASA expects this level to drop as more data becomes available.
The Torino scale, which assesses asteroid impact risk, ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (catastrophic collision). Before this discovery, no known asteroids had scored higher than 0.
Proximity and impact probabilities. The closest estimated approach of 2024 YR4 is 0.00001 astronomical units from Earth—just 1,000 miles away, closer than many satellites.
The current impact probability stands at 1 in 83 (about 1.2%), raising concerns in the scientific community. However, previous experience with similar asteroids suggests these probabilities typically decrease with further analysis.
Precedents. Some asteroids have ranked higher on the Torino Scale, only for NASA to later rule them out as threats. 99942 Apophis, for example, reached level 4 in 2004 due to a 1.6% impact probability in 2029. Further studies ruled out any risk in 2029, 2036, and 2068. Similarly, 2024 YR4 will likely be downgraded to level 0 once experts refine its orbital calculations.
Possible consequences and follow-up. In the worst-case scenario, 2024 YR4 wouldn’t cause a global catastrophe but could inflict severe damage if it hit a populated area—similar to the Tunguska event, which devastated a vast region of Siberia.
NASA and other space agencies will continue monitoring its trajectory and refining calculations. While NASA emphasizes that the impact probability remains low and that initial assessments often change, it says any potential risks will be properly assessed. If necessary, it will implement planetary defense strategies.
Image | NASA
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