The cancellation of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket would involve both technical and political considerations.
As the Artemis II mission’s launch approaches, concerns are growing over NASA’s silence on issues with the Orion spacecraft’s shield.
Pressure is at an all-time high. NASA’s goal of returning humans to the Moon with the Artemis missions beginning in 2025 is no longer just facing rumors of delays. Now, there’s whispers about the possible cancellation of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. At the same time, the space agency remains silent about the problems with the Orion spacecraft’s shield.
SLS cancellation rumors. Journalist Eric Berger, a prominent source in aerospace reporting, recently stirred the industry by suggesting that while no official decision has been made, there’s a 50% chance NASA may cancel the SLS program.
Berger said on X that this speculation pertains not only to future versions of the SLS, like Block 1B and Block 2, but to the rocket’s entire development, led by Boeing. He noted, “There are other ways to get Orion to the Moon,” alluding to private-sector rockets that could carry Artemis crews.
A waste of public money. Cancelling the SLS program would be a technical decision as well as a political and economic one. Cost overruns and delays have plagued the program since its inception.
Though it has only flown once—during the uncrewed Artemis I mission—the SLS rocket is estimated to cost around $4.1 billion per launch, excluding development expenses, which are projected to reach a cumulative $93 billion by 2025.
Questionable financial practices. The SLS program has drawn criticism not only for its high costs but also for its financial management practices. A notable example is the price of Rocketdyne’s RS-25 engines, originally developed for the Space Shuttle in the 1970s, which have seen significant cost increases over time.
NASA has funded the RS-25 engines, originally used in the Space Shuttle program, at approximately $146 million per engine for the SLS core stage, compared to $40 million for each engine in the shuttle era.
Cost-plus contracts, where NASA bears cost overruns, have exacerbated budget challenges. One example is the ML-2 mobile launch tower, initially budgeted at $383 million for 2023 delivery but now estimated at $2.7 billion with a 2027 completion.
What’s the alternative? Experts advocating for a revised approach to Artemis suggest mirroring NASA’s International Space Station commercial program, with fixed-price contracts and expanded collaboration with private companies offering modern, cost-effective solutions.
Berger cited alternatives, such as launching the Orion spacecraft with a commercial rocket like SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, paired with a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Centaur V stage. Another option is using ULA’s Vulcan rocket directly.
NASA’s silence on the issues with Orion’s shield has only fueled further speculation, leaving the future of Artemis—and a lunar return by 2025—in question.
Technical challenges and secrecy. Beyond financial and political complications, technical challenges are posing further risks to the Artemis program timeline. There’s also been talk of a possible delay of Starship. NASA is grappling with unexpected wear on the Orion spacecraft’s heat shield, discovered after the Artemis I mission’s reentry.
This finding has forced the space agency to rethink the shield’s design to ensure the safety of the Artemis astronauts. They’ll fly to the Moon for the first time during the Artemis II non-landing mission, scheduled for September 2025.
As this critical date nears, NASA has been notably tight-lipped about the specifics of the problem. While the agency has confirmed it is conducting tests to address erosion issues for future missions, details of these tests remain undisclosed.
NASA’s OIG agrees. As the NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) has highlighted, concerns over the SLS and Artemis programs reflect broader issues. The OIG points to political pressures impacting contract awards. These lucrative agreements, often influenced by business lobbying, don’t always prioritize technical or economic efficiency, according to the OIG’s latest report, which anticipates further delays for Artemis.
The challenges facing Artemis II highlight not only NASA’s technical hurdles but also the complex interplay of politics and business within the space program’s ambitions for a lunar return.
Image | NASA
Related | Artemis: Dates, Plans and Everything We Know About the New Space Mission to Put People on the Moon
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