What Is ‘Technological Singularity,’ and Why Does Sam Altman Believe It Might Arrive by 2025?

Chatbots are often impressive, but they may soon fall short of expectations. At least, this is what OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a recent interview with Y Combinator, where he also discussed his past experiences and shared his views on the current and future state of AI. His optimism is surely remarkable. Additionally, he suggests that technological singularity will occur by 2025.

However, what exactly does “technological singularity” mean?

“Technological singularity.” The concept of “technological singularity” refers to a pivotal moment in human history when technological development reaches an unprecedented level.

In the past, several experts have suggested that machines could match or even exceed human intelligence. Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom describes this phenomenon as an “intelligence explosion.” This means that machines will be able to enhance their own abilities, leading to the creation of increasingly intelligent generations of machines over time.

The role of artificial general intelligence. AGI refers to a type of AI that’s capable of matching or surpassing human intelligence. While many believe that AGI could trigger singularity, it’s worth noting that this event could also arise from other technological developments. Examples include genetic engineering, quantum computing, bioengineering, and the integration of multiple narrow AIs that can achieve similar results together.

Altman believes that AGI could be achievable by 2025. During the interview, Altman mentioned that the path to AGI is “fairly clear” and described the current challenge as simply an engineering problem. In September, he said that AGI (he refers to it as “superintelligence”) might arrive “in a few thousand days,” indicating a “slightly” extended timeline compared to his most recent comments.

The OpenAI CEO has been optimistic about this topic for years. In December 2017, a time when he wasn’t yet a public figure, Altman wrote a blog post titled The Merge. In his piece, he suggested that the integration of humans and machines will occur gradually and may be “hard to notice.” In fact, at the time, he pointed out that the process had already started: “Our phones control us and tell us what to do when; social media feeds determine how we feel; search engines decide what we think.”

Will AGI really be that substantial? Interestingly, Altman believes that the theoretical revolution brought about by AGI “will change the world much less than we think and it will change jobs much less than we think.” He said this in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos, describing AGI as “an incredible tool for productivity.”

Changes rather than revolutions. In a recent interview with 20VX with Harry Stebbings, Altman emphasized, “I think in five years, it looks like we have an unbelievably rapid rate of improvement in technology itself.” However, people may feel that AGI “came and went” and that society itself will change “surprisingly little.” This perspective contrasts sharply with that of other experts, such as AI scientist Ray Kurzweil, who expects extraordinary changes.

A contradiction. Altman’s comments seem perplexing. If AGI is indeed triggering technological singularity, how can this rapid pace of improvement fail to transform society? Altman appears to suggest that we’re already undergoing this transformation, something he noted back in 2017. However, his optimism starkly contrasts the notion that reaching this stage doesn’t equate to experiencing a great revolution.

Image | TechCrunch

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