In Just 24 Hours, Hurricane Milton Became One of the Most Powerful Hurricanes Ever Recorded in the Atlantic

Hurricane Milton has quickly intensified and is now one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic. Early predictions suggested that the storm would only reach Category 2, but in less than 18 hours, it rapidly escalated to Category 5. This is one of the fastest intensifications in history, only second to Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which is concerning.

Authorities started evacuating Florida on Monday.

What happened? As mentioned earlier, Hurricane Milton intensified rapidly over the Gulf of Mexico in less than a day, going from Category 1 to Category 5, which is the highest on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. This rapid intensification is similar to what Hurricane Wilma underwent in 2005. It also ties Hurricane Maria in 2017 for the second-fastest intensification.

The National Hurricane Center reported that Milton sustained winds of 160 mph early on Monday and a minimum pressure of 925 hPa. However, other measurements suggest even higher numbers, with wind speeds of 186 mph and a pressure of 898.6 hPa. If these measurements are accurate, Milton would be close to breaking the historical wind speed record in the area.

Additionally, although the hurricane is nearing land, it still has the potential to gain more strength. At this point, all possibilities are being considered.

First major hurricane to impact Tampa Bay since 1921. According to all trajectory simulations, Hurricane Milton will make landfall in Florida on Wednesday evening (local time). It’ll do so in the Tampa Bay, which is home to approximately three million people. The area hasn’t experienced a similar storm for more than a century.

Hurricane Helene, which struck the area in late September, resulted in the deaths of 12 people, but the potential impact of Hurricane Milton is even more worrisome to the experts.

Although the National Hurricane Center expects Hurricane Milton to weaken slightly before reaching Florida on Wednesday, it says that it’ll likely remain “extremely dangerous.”

Unexpected behavior. Some experts like Juan Jesús González Alemán say that everything that has happened with Milton “poses great difficulties to the prediction models.” When Milton initially formed, “it was thought that it would reach at most an intensity of 110 mph in 3 days.” In the end, it reached more than 180 mph.

How did we get to this situation? Experts agree that what they’re witnessing isn’t normal. Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University in New York, told Vox, “It is exceedingly rare for a hurricane to form in the western Gulf, track eastward, and make landfall on the Western coast of Florida.” He added, “There are not really any hurricanes on record that have done this and made landfall at a Category 3+ status.”

However, in hindsight, some elements can help scientists understand the problem. These include the fact that the surface waters of the Gulf of Mexico are close to reaching an all-time high, there’s practically no shear in its path, and it’s a very narrow hurricane. All these could explain what happened, but it’s a bit too late now.

Image | NOAA | Andrzej Kryszpiniuk

Related | The Atlantic Has Suddenly Begun Cooling at Record Speed. That Changes Everything, Even the Hurricane Season