China Is Facing a Future With More Old People and Fewer Workers. It Has a Plan: Encourage Senior Citizens to Volunteer

China is facing a demographic challenge—a huge one that the country can sum up in just two numbers. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, if projections are correct, it will be home to more than 450 million people over 60 by 2035. That is 32.7% of its population, well above the 20% of 2022 reported by Global Times. Its labor force, or the working-age population, will follow the opposite trend. According to the Global Times, statistics show that by the middle of this century, the number of Chinese workers will have fallen to the level it was in the 1980s.

The Xi Jinping administration has decided to take several steps regarding to address a scenario with many older adults and fewer workers supporting them. According to The New York Times, raising the retirement age has been one solution. Another is to encourage older people to volunteer and help less developed areas of the country.

What do the numbers say? That there are dangerous demographic curves ahead for this country. Although China’s population dropped for the second year in a row in 2023, with the lowest number of births on record, the real challenge looms. As its population ages, China will have more older people and a smaller population of working-age laborers. In other words, the Asian giant is preparing for a future with more burdens and fewer contributions to its coffers.

A few months ago, before China reconsidered the retirement age for its citizens, Al Jazeera reported that in just 10 years, some 300 million Chinese will reach pension age. Their retirement will increase the pool of people who have already crossed that threshold.

Is there more data? Yes. That’s only part of the problem. The World Bank has noted a slight decline in the 15-64 age group. However, medium-term projections are even less promising. Statista shows that by the middle of this century, there will be 745.3 million people in this age group (15-64) in China, a far cry from the one billion recorded a few years ago.

The elderly population will follow the opposite trend. The World Health Organization stated that China had 254 million people over 60 in 2019. By 2040, there will be more than 400 million.

Looking for solutions. The situation is complex, so the government has already adopted several measures. The most important, in terms of its scope, impact, and unpopularity, is to raise the nation’s retirement age for the first time since the mid-20th century. The idea is to phase in the increase starting in 2025. For men, it will rise from 60 to 63 in 2040.

For women, it will rise from 50 and 55 or, depending on the type of work, to 55 or 58. Another measure is to encourage older people to volunteer.

Rethinking the elderly. A few days ago, the South China Morning Post broke the news: The Chinese government has issued a set of guidelines to encourage older people to volunteer for community service. The idea is simple. In a complex demographic scenario marked by aging and the gradual loss of the working-age population, they can contribute their experience to underdeveloped regions.

Specifically, the Chinese media outlet reported that the National Committee on Aging encourages senior citizens to volunteer for community activities. This committee instructs local administrations to make it easier for older people to participate in patrols, childcare, and assistance for the elderly and people with disabilities. In China, many senior citizens live alone or with their spouses.

“They continue to strive and contribute positively to society.” Beyond theory, the government is taking concrete actions. For example, it’s reserving some volunteer positions at major events for seniors and creating an online platform to make it easier for them to organize. As the South China Morning Post reported, another of the committee’s proposals is to continue researching and collecting examples that show “the spirit of the elderly, who, like old steeds, continue to strive and contribute positively to society.”

A new measure? Not quite. The government’s guidelines focus on the Silver Age Action Initiative, a program launched in 2003. According to AARP, formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons, this proposal aims to organize retired professionals to volunteer in western and less-developed regions. In this way, their expertise will move the country forward. It was an interesting approach 20 years ago. And it continues to be one now, with the demographic engine stalled and the threat of aging looming.

As the Chinese media stated, the committee’s goal is to “update” and promote the initiative, “improving its quality and effectiveness, to safeguard the rights of the elderly to participate in economic and social development.” To this end, the Chinese committee called on the authorities to consider the program in their inter-provincial cooperation and local development plans.

AARP estimates that by 2013, 10 years after China launched the initiative, five million older people had volunteered nationwide. Their assistance benefited 300 million people and generated more than $1.2 billion in value.

Aging, a business? The gradual aging of the population and the loss of workers is a challenge for China. However, it’s also a business opportunity in the growing silver economy market, a system that harnesses the potential of the elderly. In 2021, the State Council of China encouraged locals to “actively promote” the country’s silver economy.

The New York Times recently published an extensive report on this burgeoning economy, which provided revealing information. Between 2022 and 2023, more than 20,000 kindergartens closed in China, and the number of teachers fell by 5% in just one year. Meanwhile, the number of elderly care centers has skyrocketed quickly, doubling since 2018.

Image | Jaddy Liu (Unsplash)

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